Quarero ROI Calculation: Template for Plant Managers

The following template is designed as a decision document for plant managers and CFOs. It delivers concrete euro figures, no open-ended ranges, no soft factors without quantification. Anyone presenting the text to their executive board has all input variables, a 24-month calculation and the accounting treatment in one document.

Quarero ROI Calculation: The Input Variables

The calculation begins with four input variables. First, the number of currently staffed 24/7 guard posts at the site. Second, the hourly billing rate per Manteltarifvertrag of the security industry, including surcharges. Third, the perimeter length in metres, separated into indoor and outdoor areas. Fourth, documented incidents over the last 24 months, categorised by theft, sabotage, unauthorised entry and drone sightings.

The reference value for one staffed 24/7 post in Germany lies between €15,000 and €25,000 per month. Source: BDSW industry figures The range results from region, tariff zone and the reserve required for shift, holiday and sickness buffers. A 24/7 post mathematically requires 4.5 full-time equivalents, not one. Structural data on personnel costs and tariff development is available at the BDSW industry figures.

Against this stand the Quarero RaaS rates: QR-1 at €3,200, QR-2 at €3,500, QR-3 at €3,800 per month. The minimum contract term is 24 months. The three-tier pricing model is calculated as a fixed price, no indexing, no tariff rounds, no subcontractor surcharges.

Balance sheet relevant: no CapEx arises. No capitalisation in fixed assets, no depreciation, full booking as operating expense. Delivery and commissioning occur within 48 hours of contract signing. No project lead time needs to be entered into the ROI calculation.

Substitution Model: Robot Partially Replaces Guard Post

The simplest variant is full substitution of a 24/7 post by a QR-2. With a guard post at €15,000 monthly and a QR-2 at €3,500, savings amount to €11,500 per month. If the post sits at €25,000, savings reach €21,500 monthly. Payback is negative from month 1 because no upstream investment exists.

More practically relevant is the hybrid model. A guard post in the day shift (works security, reception, key management) is retained. QR-2 takes over night and weekend duty plus continuous outdoor patrol. The combination thereby replaces two classical 24/7 posts. Savings sit at around €18,000 monthly, depending on tariff zone and shift model.

Operational effects come on top. The response time to a perimeter incident drops from an average of 8 to 12 minutes under a classical patrol pattern to under 90 seconds with continuous robot patrol. [Quarero pilot data, available internally on request] Personnel risks such as sickness absence, fluctuation, tariff increases and subcontractor compliance fall away entirely.

For KRITIS operators a regulatory effect comes on top. The documentation duty under section 11 of the draft KRITIS Umbrella Act (KRITIS-Dachgesetz) is fulfilled through gapless sensor logs, without a separate reporting system. The requirements derive from Bundestag-Drucksache 20/9262.

Next step: Review RaaS model and contract terms.

TCO Comparison over 24 Months

The board template needs two fully calculated scenarios.

Scenario A, classical: Two guard posts 24/7 over 24 months. At €15,000 per post and month, total costs reach €720,000. At €25,000 per post and month, the figure is €1,200,000. On top come 3 to 5 percent tariff increases per year [BDSW tariff statistics, source to be added], not included in the base calculation as a conservative measure.

Scenario B, hybrid: One guard post in day shift (around €8,000 monthly), one QR-2 for the outdoor perimeter (€3,500), one QR-3 for drone defence and KRITIS zones (€3,800). Total: €15,300 monthly, over 24 months around €367,000. Rounding effects and minor adjustments lead to an overall figure around €350,000.

Difference Scenario A to B: €370,000 to €850,000 savings over the minimum contract term, depending on the starting level of guard costs.

Two effects are not included in this calculation. First, the insurance effect: property insurers grant premium reductions of 8 to 15 percent on contents and business interruption insurance for documented 24/7 sensor presence, based on experience. [External source or insurance partner reference to be added] At an annual premium of €200,000 this corresponds to €16,000 to €30,000 per year. Second, incident cost reduction: based on internal Quarero pilot data, theft, sabotage and production downtime costs drop by a factor of 3 to 7 compared with classical patrol guarding. [Quarero pilot data, available internally on request]

An extended breakdown is available in the TCO comparison guard service costs.

Calculating the Payback Point Correctly

The classical payback calculation using investment divided by monthly cashflow advantage does not apply. There is no CapEx that needs amortising. Instead of payback, calculate monthly net cashflow advantage from day 1.

Break-even formula for full substitution: if the replaced security service costs more than €3,500 monthly, QR-2 is positive from month 1. For QR-3 the threshold sits at €3,800. Since a 24/7 guard post in Germany exceeds this threshold by a factor of 4 to 7, the substitution is trivial to decide financially.

For hybrid deployment, count only the shifts actually replaced. Anyone who keeps a day post and only substitutes night plus weekend may not pit the full cost of a 24/7 post against the QR-2. The correct calculation is replaced shift hours multiplied by the hourly billing rate.

A risk factor in the calculation is the 24-month contract commitment. Calculate an exit scenario for the case of plant downsizing or site relocation. Negotiate special termination rights for defined events (closure, sale, official order). Quarero provides site assessment and ROI model within 5 working days, with no preliminary contract.

Choosing Sensor Depth and Price Point Correctly

Choosing the wrong sensor depth is the most frequent ROI killer. Anyone running QR-1 outdoors gets sensor failures in rain and at night and subsequently finances retrofits or double structures. Anyone deploying QR-3 on a pure office campus pays for LiDAR and drone detection they do not need.

QR-1 is designed for indoor areas, logistics halls and office campuses. RGB camera and audio detection, no weather resistance for continuous outdoor operation. Price: €3,200 monthly.

QR-2 is the standard variant for 24/7 outdoor perimeters. Thermal imaging, person detection, night range approximately 80 metres. Price: €3,500 monthly. Details under QR-2 outdoor perimeter.

QR-3 is designed for KRITIS sites. LiDAR, drone detection, suitable for energy, water and transport sectors per KritisV. The thresholds for KRITIS facilities derive from the BSI Kritisverordnung. Price: €3,800 monthly. Specification under QR-3 for KRITIS sites.

The recommendation: tie sensor depth to protection objective, not to site size. A 40-hectare plant with a low risk profile can manage with QR-1 for indoor areas and a single QR-2 for the outer ring. A 5-hectare substation needs QR-3, regardless of size. Safety requirements for autonomous mobile robots are regulated in EN ISO 13482, which is relevant for insurability and operator liability.

Accounting and Tax Treatment

The RaaS fee is treated as an immediately deductible operating expense under section 4 paragraph 4 EStG. No depreciation across multiple fiscal years, no capitalisation as fixed assets. The equity ratio is not burdened, which is particularly relevant for group entities with balance sheet covenants.

A leasing classification under HGB does not arise because no economic ownership of the robot transfers to the customer. Quarero remains owner, bears maintenance, software updates and hardware exchange. Legally this is a service contract, not a rental contract within the meaning of §§ 535 ff. BGB and not a lease under IDW RS HFA 13.

Caution applies for group accounts under IFRS. Under IFRS 16, depending on contract design, a leasing classification can arise. This is the case when the contract grants the customer control rights over an identifiable asset. Have the contract wording reviewed by group accounting before signing. Quarero standard contracts are designed so that IFRS 16 capitalisation is not triggered. An individual case review remains necessary nonetheless.

Funding eligibility exists within individual state programmes for industrial digitisation. Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia operate funding lines that cover RaaS models, provided they are documented as digitisation services. Review per federal state required.

Common Errors in the Board Template

Error 1: Comparison of the robot purchase price with the monthly cost of the guard service. Wrong, because Quarero does not sell a robot but a service. Correct: OpEx against OpEx. Monthly RaaS fee against monthly guard service costs.

Error 2: Insurance effect and incident cost reduction are not quantified. This causes the template to underestimate the actual cashflow advantage by €16,000 to €30,000 insurance savings per year plus the avoided damage expense.

Error 3: Response time is dismissed as a soft factor. The correct approach is multiplication of the time difference by production downtime cost per minute. At €5,000 downtime cost per minute and 8 minutes response time difference, the result is €40,000 avoided follow-on cost per incident.

Error 4: The KRITIS documentation duty is booked as additional benefit instead of regulatory necessity. Anyone who is a KRITIS operator has the duty for gapless sensor logging in any case. The robot solution fulfils it automatically, an alternative solution costs €50,000 to €150,000 in project work plus ongoing maintenance. [External source or project reference data to be added]

Error 5: Contract end and renewal terms are left open. Before signing, negotiate the renewal logic: same price, indexed adjustment with cap, automatic extension or renegotiation. Anyone who fails to settle this has no negotiating leverage in month 23.

A fully calculated variant with all five errors in the corrected version is available in the article Hybrid TCO in the industrial park.

Concrete Steps to the ROI Template

Step 1: Aggregate the security service invoices of the last 12 months. Separate base service, night and weekend surcharges, special services and material costs. The result is the real full cost rate per guard post and month, not the list price from the framework contract.

Step 2: Create a perimeter map with patrol routes and critical zones. Mark areas with high risk profile (storage areas, utility infrastructure, data centres), medium profile (office complexes) and low profile (parking areas). Quarero supplies a template in DWG and PDF format.

Step 3: Define sensor depth per zone. Combine QR-1, QR-2 and QR-3 zone by zone. A mixed deployment is the rule, not the exception. The office area needs QR-1, the outer ring QR-2, the KRITIS zone QR-3.

Step 4: Calculate the 24-month TCO in two scenarios (classical and hybrid). Present the difference as an investment decision, not as a procurement proposal. Add the non-quantified effects (insurance, incident costs, response time) as supplementary entries.

Step 5: Agree a pilot over 90 days. Define acceptance criteria before the pilot starts: detection rate, false alarm rate, sensor log completeness. After 90 days, decide on full rollout or contract end without further commitment.

The full calculation template and the standard contract package are available via the TCO comparison guard service costs. Anyone wanting to initiate the pilot directly uses the Request pilot function.